Banking bonuses in 2024: Expectations by demographic
Although the 1,700 people that voted in our bonus expectations survey agreed as a whole that the upcoming bonus season would be a big upgrade on last year's, some are much more hopeful than others.
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As we expected, Bonus expectations are heavily tied to age (and, by proxy, experience in the sector).
Young people are significantly more likely to have high expectations of their bonuses. That might be partly related to seniority – bankers in their 20’s are more likely to be “guaranteed” bonus rises as a result of promotions. At most big banks, you either get to Vice President (VP) level or you leave – and if you put in the work, getting to VP is almost guaranteed.
Older professionals are more likely to be at or beyond the peak of their careers and therefore expect their bonus to be more closely tied to their performance. This may make them more realistic.
Nonetheless, a director in M&A at one mid-market investment bank informed us, somewhat unreasonably, that the bonus pool would be up 150% for this year.
Like last year, men are more optimistic about their bonuses than women. Interestingly, the gap between the two (of 8%) is tighter than it was last year when men expected bonuses to go up by 7.1% and women expected them to go down by 4.3% (a difference of 11.4%).
“The market is bad,” says one Germany-based operations analyst for an asset management firm who expects a 20% decline in her bonus. “Economy is in recession.”
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